More than 50 per cent of adults worldwide predicted to be living with overweight or obesity by 2050

A new global study published in The Lancet has revealed that over half of all adults and a third of children, teenagers, and young adults worldwide are expected to be living with overweight or obesity by 2050. The research, which analyses data from more than 200 countries, highlights the rapid acceleration of obesity levels, particularly in lower-income nations.

Experts warn that urgent action is needed to prevent what they describe as a "profound tragedy." Despite rising trends, they emphasise that governments still have an opportunity to intervene and mitigate the crisis.

By 2021, nearly half of the global adult population, one billion men and 1.11 billion women aged 25 and over, were living with overweight or obesity. Since 1990, the proportion of both men and women living with these conditions has doubled. If current trends continue, it is projected that by 2050, 57.4 per cent of men and 60.3 per cent of women will be living with overweight or obesity.

In terms of raw numbers, China (627 million), India (450 million), and the United States (214 million) are expected to have the highest populations of adults living with overweight or obesity by 2050. However, rapid population growth in sub-Saharan Africa means the number of affected individuals there is set to rise by more than 250 per cent, reaching 522 million. Nigeria, in particular, is expected to see its figures more than triple, from 36.6 million in 2021 to 141 million in 2050, making it the fourth-largest country for adults living with overweight and obesity.

The study does not account for the potential impact of new weight loss medications, which could play a significant role in addressing obesity rates in the future. However, researchers stress that action is required now to prevent overwhelming healthcare systems.

The research was led by Professor Emmanuela Gakidou from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. She emphasised that governments must act swiftly, using the country-specific data to target populations most at risk.

"[Governments] can use our country-specific estimates on the stage, timing, and speed of current and forecasted transitions in weight to identify priority populations experiencing the greatest burdens of obesity who require immediate intervention and treatment, and those that remain predominantly overweight and should be primarily targeted with prevention strategies," she said.

"The unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity is a profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure."

The study highlights a significant rise in obesity among young people. Between 1990 and 2021, obesity rates in children and younger teenagers increased from 8.8 per cent to 18.1 per cent, while rates among young adults (under 25) grew from 9.9 per cent to 20.3 per cent. By 2050, one in three young people is predicted to be affected.

Co-lead author Dr Jessica Kerr, from the Murdoch Children's Research Institute in Australia, warns that these figures present a major challenge for healthcare systems in the coming years.

"But if we act now, preventing a complete transition to global obesity for children and adolescents is still possible," she said.

Dr Kerr highlighted that many children and adolescents in Europe and South Asia are living with overweight and should be prioritised for obesity prevention efforts. Meanwhile, adolescent girls in regions such as North America, Australasia, Oceania, North Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America are at risk of shifting towards obesity dominance and require urgent intervention.

"This is essential to avoid intergenerational transmission of obesity and to prevent a wave of serious health conditions and dire financial and societal costs for future generations," she added.